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Charles Gaba
@charlesgaba@mastodon.social  ·  activity timestamp last week

🚨🚨 114% is the new 75%: As I warned in July, net #ACA rate hikes will increase EVEN MORE if the improved tax credits expire due to the Trump Regime changing the PAPI formula:

https://acasignups.net/25/09/30/114-new-75-i-warned-net-aca-rate-hikes-will-increase-even-more-if-improved-tax-credits

ACA Signups

114% is the new 75%: As I warned, net ACA rate hikes will increase EVEN MORE if the improved tax credits expire

(with apologies to “Weird Al” Yankovic) Back in July, I warned that my original projections from earlier in the year of how much net ACA enrollee premiums will increase starting in January 2026 in all 50 states +DC if the enhanced premium tax credits are allowed to expire would have to be revised & updated due to two major changes which had taken place since then: First, my original analysis assumed a 4.3% average full-price premium increase in every state. At the time none of the carriers had published even preliminary filings for 2026, so all I had to go with was the Congressional Budget Office's projection that the subsidies expiring would bump up avg. gross premiums by 4.3% by itself. That 4.3% didn't include any other "normal" factors such as general inflation, increased utilization of medical services, the added cost of covering new prescription medications like GLP-1 drugs (WeGovy, Ozempic, etc) and so on. It also couldn't account for the impact of the Trump Regime's tariffs on foreign-produced medical equipment and prescription drugs, which hadn't been imposed yet.
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