Lazarou Monkey Terror 🚀💙🌈
@Lazarou@mastodon.social  ·  activity timestamp 6 days ago
As political scientists, we've spent years investigating what happens when mainstream parties “get tough” on immigration, and how this affects support for the radical right. We recently studied what happened to people’s assessment of Labour, and their likelihood of voting for the party or Reform, shortly after Starmer gave his island of strangers speech. The speech helpfully coincided with a period when people were answering a survey for the British Election Study, so we gathered responses from people who were interviewed immediately before the speech, and those interviewed immediately after. The results: the speech made Labour and Starmer less popular, especially among Labour’s own voters. It significantly boosted immigration as an issue in people’s minds. There is no evidence it helped to reduce support for Reform, or convince Reform voters that they should vote Labour.
As political scientists, we've spent years investigating what happens when mainstream parties “get tough” on immigration, and how this affects support for the radical right. We recently studied what happened to people’s assessment of Labour, and their likelihood of voting for the party or Reform, shortly after Starmer gave his island of strangers speech. The speech helpfully coincided with a period when people were answering a survey for the British Election Study, so we gathered responses from people who were interviewed immediately before the speech, and those interviewed immediately after. The results: the speech made Labour and Starmer less popular, especially among Labour’s own voters. It significantly boosted immigration as an issue in people’s minds. There is no evidence it helped to reduce support for Reform, or convince Reform voters that they should vote Labour.
As political scientists, we've spent years investigating what happens when mainstream parties “get tough” on immigration, and how this affects support for the radical right. We recently studied what happened to people’s assessment of Labour, and their likelihood of voting for the party or Reform, shortly after Starmer gave his island of strangers speech. The speech helpfully coincided with a period when people were answering a survey for the British Election Study, so we gathered responses from people who were interviewed immediately before the speech, and those interviewed immediately after. The results: the speech made Labour and Starmer less popular, especially among Labour’s own voters. It significantly boosted immigration as an issue in people’s minds. There is no evidence it helped to reduce support for Reform, or convince Reform voters that they should vote Labour.
Lazarou Monkey Terror 🚀💙🌈
@Lazarou@mastodon.social  ·  activity timestamp 6 days ago
In the short term, presenting Labour as a party that’s tough on immigration is a vote-losing strategy. In the long term, it may even have the opposite effect of bolstering the success of the very party Labour seeks to outmanoeuvre. ‘When radical-right words come from Labour mouths, the nativist and illiberal values attached to these words become increasingly normalised, shifting the boundaries of what is politically acceptable. Copying the radical right is electorally self-defeating. Social democratic parties that try this route lose their own supporters without gaining new ones, and help to legitimise their opponents in the process. It’s time for Labour to engage in some self-reflection about the type of party it wants to be. At the moment it operates as if advancing a progressive agenda and being in government are mutually exclusive. That is far from the case. It can’t beat the radical right by becoming a pale imitation of it.
In the short term, presenting Labour as a party that’s tough on immigration is a vote-losing strategy. In the long term, it may even have the opposite effect of bolstering the success of the very party Labour seeks to outmanoeuvre. ‘When radical-right words come from Labour mouths, the nativist and illiberal values attached to these words become increasingly normalised, shifting the boundaries of what is politically acceptable. Copying the radical right is electorally self-defeating. Social democratic parties that try this route lose their own supporters without gaining new ones, and help to legitimise their opponents in the process. It’s time for Labour to engage in some self-reflection about the type of party it wants to be. At the moment it operates as if advancing a progressive agenda and being in government are mutually exclusive. That is far from the case. It can’t beat the radical right by becoming a pale imitation of it.
In the short term, presenting Labour as a party that’s tough on immigration is a vote-losing strategy. In the long term, it may even have the opposite effect of bolstering the success of the very party Labour seeks to outmanoeuvre. ‘When radical-right words come from Labour mouths, the nativist and illiberal values attached to these words become increasingly normalised, shifting the boundaries of what is politically acceptable. Copying the radical right is electorally self-defeating. Social democratic parties that try this route lose their own supporters without gaining new ones, and help to legitimise their opponents in the process. It’s time for Labour to engage in some self-reflection about the type of party it wants to be. At the moment it operates as if advancing a progressive agenda and being in government are mutually exclusive. That is far from the case. It can’t beat the radical right by becoming a pale imitation of it.
Lazarou Monkey Terror 🚀💙🌈
@Lazarou@mastodon.social  ·  activity timestamp 6 days ago
This would be infuriating at any time but has become deeply worrying in light of the surge of Reform UK and wider nationalism. That Starmer will pledge at the Global Progress Action Summit on Friday that his government will lead the fight against the “decline and division” fomented by the far right - a move in stark contrast to the passivity of recent months - suggests he is at least partly aware of the urgent need to reset. But one speech will not compensate for an agenda that fails to make the positive case for immigration and asylum rights. The fact Labour will never be able to satisfy the staunch anti-immigration vote when Reform offers mass deportations (and the claim migrants are eating our swans) makes the chase more tragic still. On its worst days, Starmer’s government is akin to a mediocre tribute band playing cover versions to a crowd who will always prefer the original.
This would be infuriating at any time but has become deeply worrying in light of the surge of Reform UK and wider nationalism. That Starmer will pledge at the Global Progress Action Summit on Friday that his government will lead the fight against the “decline and division” fomented by the far right - a move in stark contrast to the passivity of recent months - suggests he is at least partly aware of the urgent need to reset. But one speech will not compensate for an agenda that fails to make the positive case for immigration and asylum rights. The fact Labour will never be able to satisfy the staunch anti-immigration vote when Reform offers mass deportations (and the claim migrants are eating our swans) makes the chase more tragic still. On its worst days, Starmer’s government is akin to a mediocre tribute band playing cover versions to a crowd who will always prefer the original.
This would be infuriating at any time but has become deeply worrying in light of the surge of Reform UK and wider nationalism. That Starmer will pledge at the Global Progress Action Summit on Friday that his government will lead the fight against the “decline and division” fomented by the far right - a move in stark contrast to the passivity of recent months - suggests he is at least partly aware of the urgent need to reset. But one speech will not compensate for an agenda that fails to make the positive case for immigration and asylum rights. The fact Labour will never be able to satisfy the staunch anti-immigration vote when Reform offers mass deportations (and the claim migrants are eating our swans) makes the chase more tragic still. On its worst days, Starmer’s government is akin to a mediocre tribute band playing cover versions to a crowd who will always prefer the original.
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