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Dave Rahardja (he/him)
@drahardja@sfba.social  ·  activity timestamp 3 days ago

Deutsche Bank is now warning that the US AI bubble is about to pop.

“It may not be an exaggeration to write that NVIDIA—the key supplier of capital goods for the AI investment cycle—is currently carrying the weight of U.S. economic growth. The bad news is that in order for the tech cycle to continue contributing to GDP growth, capital investment needs to remain parabolic. This is highly unlikely.”

“In the absence of tech-related spending, the U.S. would be close to, or in, recession this year.”

#ai #bubble

“The AI boom is unsustainable unless tech spending goes ‘parabolic,’ Deutsche Bank warns: ‘This is highly unlikely’”

https://fortune.com/2025/09/23/ai-boom-unsustainable-tech-spending-parabolic-deutsche-bank/

Fortune

The AI boom is unsustainable unless tech spending goes ‘parabolic,’ Deutsche Bank warns: ‘This is highly unlikely’ | Fortune

“In the absence of tech-related spending, the U.S. would be close to, or in, recession this year,” George Saravelos says.
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Dave Rahardja (he/him)
@drahardja@sfba.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 3 days ago

This is a good commentary that links to the article above: https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/deutsche-bank-grim-warning-ai-industry

The tl;dr is that the amount of money spent on capital expenditure (building server farms and chips) for AI has exploded, but it has not brought the concomitant revenue growth to make it sustainable. AI capex is now responsible for more GDP growth than “all of consumer spending combined.” To pay for this, the AI industry needs to generate more than $2T *annual* revenue by 2030, which is ludicrous. Sooner or later, the piper must get paid.

#ai #bubble

Futurism

Deutsche Bank Issues Grim Warning for AI Industry

Deutsche Bank is warning that AI spending won't "remain parabolic," or continue to increase exponentially, a dire warning for the future.
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